Weekly review and free levels/setups for 8/18
Market continues to consolidate just below ATH, Sideways market for next few weeks?
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Last week ES futures saw almost about 100 handles upside making new ATH to 6508. Market can try to retrace to 6456 again and if bears can hold below it, it can shade quick 100 handles from it if bears can perform, without impacting overall bull case, otherwise we keep consolidating at higher levels between 6456 to 6502, which were level we gave last week. Overall as we have posted since we recaptured 5700 after Trump tariff threat bottom, for longer term portfolios we are in bull run as far as we stay > 5700.
For the week of August 18, 2025, key economic events that could impact market includes:
Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21-23): Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and other central bank remarks could signal future interest rate moves, with markets pricing in steady rates (4.25%-4.5%) but sensitive to hawkish shifts.
U.S. Retail Sales (August 19): February data will reflect consumer spending trends amid tariff concerns, following a sharp January decline.
Housing Data: Homebuilder confidence (August 18), housing starts (August 19), and existing home sales (August 21) will indicate housing market strength, impacted by high prices and tariff-related cost pressures.
Corporate Earnings: Reports from companies like Nvidia partner Micron Technology, Nike, FedEx, and others (August 20-22) could sway sector performance, especially amid tariff and consumer spending worries.
Global Developments: U.S.-China/EU tariff truce updates and geopolitical events may influence market sentiment, with stable U.S. indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) but potential volatility if trade tensions rise.
Trade reveiws from X posts from last week as usual we played both sides.
On August 13, a regular trading hours (RTH) long from 6426 yielded 6470+ (shared with Telegram followers), with the tape remaining long above 6452 and upside targets to 6502.
On August 14, an RTH short against 6502 delivered 30+ handles; additionally, shorted post-PPI from 72 for ~20 handles, with continued shorts from 76 into the afternoon before flattening ahead of Trump's speech.
On August 15 (OPEX day), shorted 94 after open for 20 handles down, staying flat in the afternoon due to geopolitical risks; noted 56 held with focus on 76 for bearish/bullish control.
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Econ Calendar:
Night session Trading Suggestions:
I suggest to not trade night session from 10 pm to 2 am chop. If action has to happen than it will happen before 10 pm or after 2 am EST. You can generally play short on top level provided for nightly range and long on lower level of nightly range after 2 am or 3 am. But get out of the way if it rips or drops thru levels and wait for new opportunity or flip. And of course never add to loser and better yet cut it and reset.
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Never take position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Recommended stop: -2 and go to BE on +2. Some ppl who can't reenter shall chose -3.5/4.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th leave runner at BE
Big picture: > 5700 this remains bullish.
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Levels, & Possible Targets: 🔥🔥= Critical (These are now for September U Contract)
Long term view: As far as > 5700 tape remains in bulls’ control
Bull bear: 6470 (Weekly bull bear level is 6456)
Above: 6470, 6490, 6502🔥, 6516, 6540, 6566🔥
Below: 6456🔥, 6432, 6420, 6400🔥, 6376, 6360🔥🔥
Trade ideas: Long > 6470 , Though whole 70-80 area is chop area, flip on conversion.
Note: Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers
