Week of Sept 29- ES/SPX futures Levels and Setups
Momentum stalled? New ATH on ES/NQ but three consecutive red days last week.
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Review of last week trades
Here’s a summary of ES futures trading from last week.
September 22, 2025:
We shared a Substack link for the week’s free levels and setups. Our first setup delivered 10+ handles during the London session. We missed a long versus 20 but entered long versus 28, exiting around 46. We advised watching for longs versus 28 or shorts versus 24, noting the market’s upward momentum.
September 23, 2025:
We provided a 46 pivot for Globex and shorted 50 after the open, suggesting longs were viable if 24 held but would flip short otherwise. Later, we confirmed the flip to short as long as 20 held upside, emphasizing that there’s no reward in early entries on either side—just following setups.
September 24, 2025:
We recommended keeping shorts versus 20, with 6666 as a magnet below, and shorts valid below 00/04. We hoped followers shorted versus 00, which gave almost 16+ handles, stressing the importance of extracting from good setups. We noted 82 as a holding level, with 66/62 below and 20/24 above. In a reply, we mentioned keeping shorts on 6720 since the open, now favoring shorts below 6704 targeting 6666.
September 25, 2025:
We highlighted a 6692 pivot in Globex, with 82 as a short setup for Globex and 62 at RTH open; the market couldn’t reach 24 (unfinished business). We longed 56 to give bulls a chance but, after faltering, shorted 56 targeting 24. Later, we liquidated shorts to the tick and flipped long versus 52 on the bounce, with Globex remaining long above 52 targeting 66 and then 82.
September 26, 2025:
We reported the Globex long versus 52 gave exactly 52+ handles. We longed versus 66/70 at the open for 30 handles, then shorted 92 for 20 handles, calling it a day. We stated bears could control the day if keeping below 82. In a reply, we clarified that levels are given free on Mondays and to Substack members for the rest of the week.
Key Economic events Next week
Key economic events that could influence indices:
Tuesday, September 30: Chicago PMI (forecast: 43.5) and Consumer Confidence (96.0) could influence market sentiment; strong data may boost stocks, while weak readings might weigh on indices.
Wednesday, October 1: ADP Employment (47.5K) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.3) may signal economic strength; weaker-than-expected figures could increase volatility.
Thursday, October 2: Initial Jobless Claims (225K) could affect views on labor market health, impacting futures like #ES_F.
Friday, October 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (55K), PCE Price Index, and ISM Services PMI (51.8) are major catalysts; strong jobs or inflation data may reduce Fed rate-cut expectations, pressuring stocks, while softer data could support equities
Levels and Setups Monday Sept 23rd: 🔥🔥= Critical
(These are now for December Z Contract)\
Long term view: As far as > 6300 tape remains in bulls’ control
Bull bear: 6692 (Weekly bull bear level is 6692 )
Above: 6692🔥🔥 ,6706, 6724, 6750🔥, 6776, 6796, 6816
Below: 6682 🔥, 6666, 6652🔥🔥 ,6636, 6624, 6600🔥🔥
Setup 1: Long vs 6706 for trip to 6724.
Setup 2: Flip short vs 6702 on break of 6700. But for any meaningful downside 92 must break decisively. Better short is vs 92 .
Setup 3: Long vs 6652 if it reaches there but its now a weak long so be ready to flip on break.
Setup 4: Long vs 6600/84 if it reaches there and 84 holds.
Trading Times Suggestions
Globex: 2 am to 4 am EST or After 830 Econ
RTH: 930 am thru 11 am and 2 pm to 3:30 pm . First few minutes of open can be choppy.
Setup usage suggestion
Do not try setups more than once if you have to > 3.5 handle stop loss or twice if you are take <=2 handle stop loss. Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers.
Size, Stop, Scale out strategy
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Avoid taking position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Size: Either 4 micro or 4 emini lots or in multiple of 4’s, risking max 1-5% of your capital.
Recommended stop: Depends on your trading style. You can start with disaster stop of -4 and
Move to -2 once you are +2 on trade
Once you hit T1 you can go to -2 and when you hit T2 you can go to BE Or
Move to BE once you are +2
Move to BE if trade is taking more than 4-5 minutes after entry
Some folks like to keep it all the way to next level though I do not like to keep my trade that loose.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th start trailing if more than 20 handles on the trade.
