Week of Sept 22 - ES/SPX futures Levels and Setups
ATH again on ES and NQ futures after Fed cuts 25 bps
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Review of last week trades
Here’s a summary of ES futures trading from last week. We emphasized risk management, recommending smaller positions during choppy sessions like opex or post-FOMC, and flipping positions on level breaks.
September 15, 2025:
We noted buyers tried to push higher but failed above value, stalling at the extreme. Sellers then pressed, forcing trapped buyers to liquidate, fueling a short. We didn’t specify exact trades but highlighted this dynamic.
September 16, 2025:
We shorted versus 82, targeting 66, and liquidated. We then watched the 66 level, with 50 below as a potential target. Later, we went long versus 66, holding half into Globex, noting two setups were enough for a range-bound day. We also shared that overnight, the market held 76, converted 82, and hit 96, nearing 6700. We advised longing 78 if it held and shorting 6700 based on price action.
September 18, 2025:
We reported a Globex pivot at 62 that supported a long position. Once 82 was accepted before the London session, it yielded nearly 40 handles to the upside. In regular trading hours (RTH), longing versus 82 gave a few handles, while shorting at the open provided a few more. A long versus 6700 delivered 10 handles. We noted post-lunch choppiness.
September 19, 2025:
We highlighted Friday’s quarterly opex and contract rollover, advising to trade less. The 6696 pivot worked well, with 6706/10 as key levels. Bulls could push above to 20 and 50, while 82 and 62 were below.
Key Economic events Next week
Key economic events that could influence indices:
The Core PCE Price Index is the highlight, with GDP and PMI data also significant. Below is a concise summary of major U.S. events and their potential market impacts, based on consensus forecasts.
Tuesday, September 23: Preliminary PMIs
S&P Global US Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Manufacturing PMI expected ~47.8 (contraction), Services PMI ~55.4 (expansion). Strong services data could lift consumer discretionary and financial stocks; weak manufacturing may pressure industrials, signaling slowdown risks. Impact: Moderate; influences growth outlook and sector rotation.
Thursday, September 25: Final GDP
Q2 GDP (Final Estimate, 8:30 AM ET): Forecast ~3.0% annualized. An upward revision could boost confidence, supporting S&P 500 and cyclicals; a downward revision may fuel recession concerns, hitting risk assets like tech and industrials. Impact: Moderate to high.
Friday, September 26: Core PCE Inflation
PCE Price Index (August, 8:30 AM ET): Core PCE expected +0.2% monthly, ~2.7% YoY. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a higher-than-expected print could reduce rate cut odds (currently ~25 bps for October), raising yields and pressuring Nasdaq/tech stocks. Softer data may lift rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities). Impact: Very high; potential 0.5-1% index swings.
Levels and Setups Monday Sept 23rd: 🔥🔥= Critical
(These are now for December Z Contract)\
Long term view: As far as > 6300 tape remains in bulls’ control
Bull bear: 6720 (Weekly bull bear level is 6666)
Above: 6720, 6750, 6776, 6790, 6816
Below: 6700, 6682, 6666🔥🔥, 6644 , 6624/16, 6600🔥🔥
Setup 1: Short is vs 6720, flip bias if 16 keeps holding downside once 24 breaks up.
Setup 2: Long vs 6662/66 as far as 62 holds. Setup 3: Long vs 6600/84 if it reaches there and 84 holds.
Trading Times Suggestions
Globex: 2 am to 4 am EST or After 830 Econ
RTH: 930 am thru 11 am and 2 pm to 3:30 pm . First few minutes of open can be choppy.
Setup usage suggestion
Do not try setups more than once if you have to > 3.5 handle stop loss or twice if you are take <=2 handle stop loss. Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers.
Size, Stop, Scale out strategy
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Avoid taking position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Size: Either 4 micro or 4 emini lots or in multiple of 4’s, risking max 1-5% of your capital.
Recommended stop: Depends on your trading style. You can start with disaster stop of -4 and
Move to -2 once you are +2 on trade
Once you hit T1 you can go to -2 and when you hit T2 you can go to BE Or
Move to BE once you are +2
Move to BE if trade is taking more than 4-5 minutes after entry
Some folks like to keep it all the way to next level though I do not like to keep my trade that loose.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th start trailing if more than 20 handles on the trade.
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