Week of Oct 20- ES/SPX futures Levels and Setups
Inside week with 200 handles range. Will we break up or down this week?
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Review of last week trades
Monday, October 13
Morning: Shorted at 6686 (executed multiple times, yielding about 10 handles).
Afternoon: Longed at 6682 on conversion, then shorted against 6712/6716 (yielding 10+ handles).
Globex outlook: Long above 6692/6696, short below 6716, within a larger chop range of 6716-6636.
Tuesday, October 14
Globex: Shorted at 6716 and 6696 (liquidated around 6616 in the morning).
RTH (Regular Trading Hours): Shorted at 6636 at open, then longed at 6612 (liquidated early around 6620); missed a long conversion at 6636.
Noted new all-time high for RTY (Russell 2000), but no specific trade tied to it.
Wednesday, October 15
Morning: Longed at 6736 (liquidated around 6760+), then shorted at 6752 (to 6730).
Afternoon: Shorted at 6726 (liquidated in the 6670s), then longed at 6676 on conversion (to 6700, though personally missed).
Intraday details: Avoided opening chop, longed at 36 (liquidated at 60ish), shorted at 52 (to 30ish), and shorted again at 26 in the afternoon.
Globex outlook: Long above 6700, with 6716 key; chop between 6716-6636, potential ups to 6736.
Thursday, October 16
Globex: Longed at 6700.
RTH: Shorted at 6726 and 6700 (liquidated near 6666 multiple times).
Additional: Longed against 6640 (yielded handles).
Globex outlook: Long above 6640, short below 6676; upside to 6700, downside to 6600+.
Friday, October 17
Focused on OPEX (options expiration) chop: Recommended shorting at 6676 and longing 6640 area.
Key levels: Downside floodgates if < 6632, upside if > 76 then goes to 6700.
Key economic events/Earnings that could influence indices:
Levels and Setups Monday Oct 20th: 🔥🔥= Critical
(These are now for December Z Contract)
Long term view: As far as > 6300 tape remains in bulls’ control.
Bull bear: 6700 (Weekly bull bear level is 6636)
Above: 6716🔥🔥, 6736, 6752🔥, 6770 ,6796🔥, 6812, 6820, 6836, 6860🔥
Below: 6700, 6680, 6666, 6636🔥🔥, 6600, 6584🔥, 6566, 6540, 6524🔥🔥
Econ: Tuesday after close you have TSLA, NFLX.
Large Chop area: 6616 to 6736 remains large chop area now with 6666 magnet.
Below setups can be used to initiate position or scale out of your positions or some time reverse depending how market reacts to the price.
Setup: Long vs 6700 as far as it holds. Though better long is vs 6680 as far as 76 holds downside
Setup: Short vs 6726 as far as it holds upside. This converts to long if 6736 starts holding downside.
Setup: Long vs 6640 as far as 32 holds. Flip if it breaks.
Setup: Long vs 6584 on major pull backSetup: Long vs 6524 on major major pull back
Trading Times Suggestions
Globex: 2 am to 4 am EST or After 830 Econ
RTH: 930 am thru 11 am and 2 pm to 3:30 pm . First few minutes of open can be choppy.
Setup usage suggestion
Do not try setups more than once if you have to > 3.5 handle stop loss or twice if you are take <=2 handle stop loss. Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers.
Size, Stop, Scale out strategy
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Avoid taking position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Size: Either 4 micro or 4 emini lots or in multiple of 4’s, risking max 1-5% of your capital.
Recommended stop: Depends on your trading style. You can start with disaster stop of -4 and
Move to -2 once you are +2 on trade
Once you hit T1 you can go to -2 and when you hit T2 you can go to BE Or
Move to BE once you are +2
Move to BE if trade is taking more than 4-5 minutes after entry
Some folks like to keep it all the way to next level though I do not like to keep my trade that loose.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th start trailing if more than 20 handles on the trade.
