Week of Oct 13- ES/SPX futures Levels and Setups
Finally some retracement, Sunday opened right at the long setup level 6636 provided in last week's news letter and again on Friday close.
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Review of last week trades
We captured biggest day last week with Friday giving 6796 short, which ended up being a 200-handle move. We liquidated most near 6666 on reshorts. We stayed mostly short, did some longs vs 6666 and 6636 that paid somewhat.” We flagged 6666 and 6636 as key levels for the following week amid potential shutdown and Fed developments. And 6636 gave a good 70 handle long on Sunday who were were trading.
On October 8, We shorted 96 at RTH open and liquidated around 60’s for long vs 52. Long 52 paid for those who wanted. We stayed out most of the afternoon’s 10 handle chop. We gave long vs 58 towards the end of the RTH, and it has been holding in Globex.” We also mentioned potential shorts at 76 and above, with downside to 36 if bears prevailed. Later that day, we recapped Globex and RTH activity: “We gave 6758 long before Globex open that gave support to the tick. We gave 76 short that also gave handles. RTH converted 76, but we missed taking long, so we got a few handles on 92 short. Globex remains long > 96, with targets above 6812 and 6836. Below, we have 76 as a big support now.”
On October 9, we reported a successful Globex long: “We gave Globex long 6796 that hit 6812 to the tick... Now short vs 6796 for 6776 target and more if bears can break down; it can take to 6752/58. But 6776 is very important support.” Later, emphasizing our team-like execution, we added: “We liquidated 96 shorts near low 70’s. We stayed out a couple of hours in the morning and then have been shorting every bounce to 72/76.”
Early on October 10, before Globex close, we commented on shifting positions: “From 76 long to 92/96 short area now. Midday, we detailed short entries: “We gave 6796 short this am. Second chance vs 6772 and then 6748. All paid 100’s of handles. Target is 6666 if bears can do it.” We followed up, noting the chop: We have 6636 below and 6716 above. It’s Friday, time to chop both sides.”
Key economic events that could influence indices:
Key releases amid shutdown delays and tariff risks could sway indices
Levels and Setups Monday Oct 6th : 🔥🔥= Critical
(These are now for December Z Contract)\
Long term view: As far as > 6300 tape remains in bulls’ control.
Bull bear: 6716 (Weekly bull bear level is 6636)
Above: 6736, 6752🔥, 6772 ,6796🔥, 6812, 6820, 6836, 6860🔥
Below: 6716, 6692🔥🔥 , 6682 , 6666🔥, 6636🔥🔥, 6584
Large Chop area: 6636 to 6716 remains large chop area now with 6666 magent.
Setup : Long vs 6640 as far as 36 holds on large pull back. Flip on conversion.
This was our setup last week and provided in Globex as important level.
Setup: Short vs 6716 as far as it holds upside.
Setup: Long vs 6666 as fa as it holds downside. This is now weak long.
Setup: Long vs 6584 on major pull back
Trading Times Suggestions
Globex: 2 am to 4 am EST or After 830 Econ
RTH: 930 am thru 11 am and 2 pm to 3:30 pm . First few minutes of open can be choppy.
Setup usage suggestion
Do not try setups more than once if you have to > 3.5 handle stop loss or twice if you are take <=2 handle stop loss. Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers.
Size, Stop, Scale out strategy
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Avoid taking position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Size: Either 4 micro or 4 emini lots or in multiple of 4’s, risking max 1-5% of your capital.
Recommended stop: Depends on your trading style. You can start with disaster stop of -4 and
Move to -2 once you are +2 on trade
Once you hit T1 you can go to -2 and when you hit T2 you can go to BE Or
Move to BE once you are +2
Move to BE if trade is taking more than 4-5 minutes after entry
Some folks like to keep it all the way to next level though I do not like to keep my trade that loose.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th start trailing if more than 20 handles on the trade.
