Week of Nov 17 - ES/SPX futures Levels and Setups
Bulls continue to hold market near highs after two consecutive red weeks.
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Review of some of last week trades
On November 12, we recapped a mixed session: “#ES_F We liquidated 6850 long from yesterday at 6888 in Globex. We gave 6892/88 Short in RTH that gave 30 handles to 6850/54 which was long setup given in nightly plan. We stayed out most of afternoon as it chopped right above our level 6868.”
On November 14, we noted the downside completion: “As predicted. 200 handles from 6888/92 completed this morning. #ES_F” . Later that day, we detailed prior Globex action and opening trades: “#ES_F We gave this short from 6772 -> 6680 for Globex yesterday 90+ handles. As we open 6700/16 remains important resistance above and 6680 below remains good support right above 6666.”
We followed with intraday longs: “We longed 6708/12 area and liquidated near 6750, little early. We longed again 6754 and liquidated near 6776. #ES_F We called range 6786/90 above and 6754 below, hope you made handles following short 6786/90 and long 6754.
Key economic events/Earnings that could influence indices:
Levels and Setups Monday Nov 17: 🔥🔥= Critical
(These are now for December Z Contract)
Long term view: As far as > 6300 tape remains in bulls’ control.
Bull bear: 6790 (Weekly bull bear level is 6790)
Above: 6790🔥🔥, 6816🔥, 6836, 6850🔥, 6868, 6892🔥, 6908, 6936,6960🔥, 6980, 7000 ,7036🔥🔥
Below: 6772, 6752🔥🔥, 6732, 6716, 6700🔥, 6680, 6666 🔥, 6636 🔥🔥
Setups:
Chop area is 6752 to 6790 with 6772 magnet
1. Short vs 6790/86 as far as it holds upside
2. Long vs 6752, flip on conversion. This has been solid support
3. Long vs 6790 on conversion
4. Long vs 6700 as far as it holds, flip on 6680 print
Do not DCA. If setup fails, flip or go on sideline until next setup materializes.
Trading Times Suggestions
Globex: 2 am to 4 am EST or After 830 Econ
RTH: 930 am thru 11 am and 2 pm to 3:30 pm . First few minutes of open can be choppy.
Setup usage suggestion
Do not try setups more than once if you have to > 3.5 handle stop loss or twice if you are take <=2 handle stop loss. Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers.
Size, Stop, Scale out strategy
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Avoid taking position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Size: Either 4 micro or 4 emini lots or in multiple of 4’s, risking max 1-5% of your capital.
Recommended stop: Depends on your trading style. You can start with disaster stop of -4 and
Move to -2 once you are +2 on trade
Once you hit T1 you can go to -2 and when you hit T2 you can go to BE Or
Move to BE once you are +2
Move to BE if trade is taking more than 4-5 minutes after entry
Some folks like to keep it all the way to next level though I do not like to keep my trade that loose.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th start trailing if more than 20 handles on the trade.
Apreciate the weekly recap with clear levels. The way you documented that November 12th trade from 6850 to 6888 in Globex helps show how these setups play out in real time. Bulls holding near highs after two red weeks does suggest some resillience in the market structure.