FOMC mid week update- ES/SPX futures Levels and Setups
Bulls keep riding on FOMC rate cut tomorrow and major tech earnings this week
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Review of last week trades
On October 20, we recapped a bullish session: “We gave Globex long from 6700, RTH long from 6740, and RTH long from 6756. We did not give any short today as there was none. Bears just laid down everything again.”
On October 21, we detailed mixed RTH action: “#RTH Short 6776 paid few handles and so did 6776 long. But as it kept coming back with indecisiveness, we stayed on sideline expecting hours of chop and thats what has been happening. TSLA and NFLX reports after hours. You have ATH above this and you have 6752 first support below that you can lean long on.”
On October 22, we outlined an opening short with adjustments: “#ES_F We shorted 6776 from open, liquidated near 6740’s which was long area given to substack members and reshorted 62 area. Globex remains short below 26. You can long if 36 starts holding for climb back to 66 area. If 26 goes and starts holding upside which is preferred scenario you should see unfinished business to 6680 area or more.”
On October 23, we described multiple RTH reversals: “#RTH We went long from 6740 to 6766 and short from 6766 to 6740 and then again long from 6740 to 6760 ish. Then we stayed out. Now we are longing 6766 to ATH. Bears need to hold 86 or this is going ATH.”
On October 27, we shared a Globex long: “#ES_F We gave long 6888 that gave about 20 handles. These were harder handles but bleed up continues. Globex bull bear is 88/92. 6908 is level and above that you have 6936 and below you have 6860 and 6840.”
On October 28, we followed up on the prior long and added intraday trades: “#ES_F We liquidated yesterday’s long from 6888 around 6926’s. We shorted open from 6926 and liquidated around 12ish. Right now we are long from 6918 and liquidated all but runner for mission 6936 or more though with FOMC tomorrow don’t expect big moves.”
Overall, we emphasized longs from supports like 6700, 6740, and 6888 targeting all-time highs (ATH) and higher levels such as 6936, interspersed with shorts on bounces around 6776-6926 for quick handles, while navigating indecision from external factors.
Key economic events/Earnings that could influence indices:
FOMC rate decision tomorrow/Wednesday at 2 pm and conference right after that will decide market direction.
Levels and Setups Wednesday Oct 20th: 🔥🔥= Critical
(These are now for December Z Contract)
Long term view: As far as > 6300 tape remains in bulls’ control.
Bull bear: 6918/22 (Weekly bull bear level is 6790)
Above: 6908, 6936,6960, 6980, 7000 ,7036🔥🔥
Below: 6888🔥🔥, 6860, 6840, 6824🔥, 6812, 6790🔥🔥,6776 , 6752🔥🔥, 6736, 6716🔥, 6700, 6680, 6666, 6636🔥🔥
Econ: 2 pm FOMC rate decision, MSFT, META, GOOG after hours
Setup: Long vs 6918/22 as far as it holds for hocky stick rally
Setup: Short 6908 on conversion with target 6888 or more
Setup: Long vs 6824 as far as it holds downside
Setup: Long vs 6790 or 6766 on further decline
Trading Times Suggestions
Globex: 2 am to 4 am EST or After 830 Econ
RTH: 930 am thru 11 am and 2 pm to 3:30 pm . First few minutes of open can be choppy.
Setup usage suggestion
Do not try setups more than once if you have to > 3.5 handle stop loss or twice if you are take <=2 handle stop loss. Use my globex Pivot/opening setup as main directional guide and then other setups as guidance. Flip or go flat if setup reverses as I may not be in front of my screen all day, you should by now know how the process works at most you have 2/4 handle risk. Setup generally reverses on 1 minute close above/below 3/4 handles from marker. Again there is no sure shot as some time I might relax that or may go predictive. That’s general rule anyway. Also most of the time setups always gives opportunities to reenter some time even multiple times so never take trade too far away from setup markers.
Size, Stop, Scale out strategy
Remember: I never short above or long below my marker. I wait for it to pause before it or come back to it from rip/dip and pause before executing.
Avoid taking position before Econ like CPI Or FOMC. After econ watch for levels where it stops and how it interacts to decide long or short.
Size: Either 4 micro or 4 emini lots or in multiple of 4’s, risking max 1-5% of your capital.
Recommended stop: Depends on your trading style. You can start with disaster stop of -4 and
Move to -2 once you are +2 on trade
Once you hit T1 you can go to -2 and when you hit T2 you can go to BE Or
Move to BE once you are +2
Move to BE if trade is taking more than 4-5 minutes after entry
Some folks like to keep it all the way to next level though I do not like to keep my trade that loose.
Scale out: 2 lots at +6/8, 3rd at +10/16, 4th start trailing if more than 20 handles on the trade.
